ScienceDaily (Apr. 16, 2012) — A once-a-day pill to help prevent HIV infection could significantly reduce the spread of AIDS, but only makes economic sense if used in select, high-risk groups, Stanford University researchers conclude in a new study.
The researchers looked at the cost-effectiveness of the combination drug tenofovir-emtricitabine, which was found in a landmark 2010 trial to reduce an individual’s risk of HIV infection by 44 percent when taken daily. Patients who were particularly faithful about taking the drug reduced their risk to an even greater extent — by 73 percent.
The results generated so much interest that the Stanford researchers decided to see if it would be cost-effective to prescribe the pill daily in large populations, a prevention technique known as pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP. They created an economic model focused on men who have sex with other men, or MSM, as they account for more than half of the estimated 56,000 new infections annually in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"Promoting PrEP to all men who have sex with men could be prohibitively expensive," said Jessie Juusola, a PhD candidate in management science and engineering in the School of Engineering and first author of the study. "Adopting it for men who have sex with men at high risk of acquiring HIV, however, is an investment with good value that does not break the bank."
For instance, using the pill in the general MSM population would cost $495 billion over 20 years, compared to $85 billion when targeted to those at particularly high risk, the researchers found. The study was published in the April 17 issue of the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Senior author Eran Bendavid, MD, assistant professor of medicine in the School of Medicine, said the results are a departure from a previous study, which found PrEP was not cost-effective when compared with other commonly accepted prevention programs. The new Stanford study differs in a few important respects, taking into consideration the decline in transmission rates over time as more individuals take the pill. The Stanford team also assumed individuals would stop taking PrEP after 20 years, not stay on the drug for life, as the previous study had assumed.
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