Gay men are better at predicting when they won't have sex than when they will

Gus Cairns
Original Article:

A study in which a group of HIV-negative gay and bisexual men from New York were asked to predict each day whether they would have sex the following day, and then compared their prediction with what actually happened, found that men generally overestimated the likelihood they would have sex.

The only time men accurately predicted whether they would have sex the next day was in the days they predicted it was very unlikely: if men reported that there was only a zero to 5% chance of sex the following day then, sure enough, only about 4% actually ended up having sex and there was no case in which someone had sex after having predicted that there was zero chance of them having sex the following day. The sexual optimists, on the other hand, were often disappointed: only 45% of men who predicted a 90% chance of sex the following day actually ended up having it.

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